Want to win a bobblehead??
We're one week away from the first pitch of the 2012 season at Miller Park and the beginning of the Crew's defense of the National League Central Division crown. You can almost smell the legions of grills wafting a hazy cloud of charcoal smoke over the parking lot, see the green grass stretching across the outfield and hear the crack of the bat. Ah, baseball has returned.
To celebrate the new season, and to have a little fun over the next week, I propose a friendly contest among friends. I have an extra John Axford and Randy Wolf bobblehead and I’m offering one up as a Peace & Glove prize to the person whose prediction comes closest to the National League Central standings come October. Post a comment below listing how your guess. The scoring will be as follows:
1st place=12 points
2nd place=10 points
3rd place=8 points
4th place=6 points
5th place=4 points
6th place=2 points
Tiebreaker 1=Guess the number of Brewers wins
Tiebreaker 2=guess the number of Cubs losses
Game on. Let's see who comes closest! Now for my season preview and official picks:
When it comes to my expectations, for both the team and individual players, I am and always have been optimistic. The only time I can remember not being optimistic about something is when they robbed Mr. Sveum of the managerial job after the 2008 season and gave it to Ken Macha instead. I may have resembled Randy Quaid in "Major League II" for part of that season, so I won’t get started on those wasted years.
I’m not one who believes my team is going to the World Series every year, but every year my optimism has me believing that all the right pieces will fall into place and we will be one of the more competitive teams in the division. If you, as a fan, aren’t optimistic about your team's upcoming season, you should re-evaluate your team loyalty. For the vast majority of my life that optimism has been met with a Cubs-like reality by the all-star break, but every year hope springs eternal.
When I look at the Central Division, I see two groups: the top three teams and the bottom three teams. Fans of any one of the top three have reason to believe they will be the team on top at the end of the year, while fans of the bottom three have reason to believe their team won't be looking up from the cellar. Baseball is a game of streaks and any team could, in theory, have that miraculous kind of year where everything clicks and find themselves in the playoff hunt. Likewise, any team can implode and find themselves out of the hunt by August. It’s hard to make predictions based on "miraculous" seasons. Did anyone in the country pick Lehigh over Duke?
The three teams I see in the top half of the division are the Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals. I do not believe that any one is drastically better or worse than the other two, but they definitely have better odds than the remaining three. What will separate these three teams is the unpredictable things like injuries and MVP, Cy Young, or rookie of the year performances. Barring a hot streak by one team or another, they will probably all be within striking distance when the calendar turns to September.
I know there are those who can look at these teams without bias and use logic and reasoning to determine who has the best chance of winning the division. I do that as well, but my optimism shines through into my logic and reasoning. I do fully expect the site's resident odds-maker and knower of the finer details to explain why he believes each team will finish. I also expect him to have as good of a chance at winning as anyone else. (I’m looking at you, you Kiomohican!) Probably to no one's surprise, my heart and my eternal optimism have me picking the Brewers to repeat as NL Central champs.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not picking the Crew based solely on heart and optimism. I do have logic and reasoning on my side, as do the other teams. However, it’s the optimism that has me believing the pieces will fall into place more so than the other two contenders.
We return all five of last year's starting pitchers. Shaun Marcum had a rough postseason and a slow start to this season, missing a good chunk of spring training, but let’s not forget he was without a doubt one of the reasons we did what we did last year. The rest of the starters seem to be healthy, and if Greinke doesn’t sign an extension before opening day we always have the hope of the impending free-agency "career year" we’ve seen many times before. We lost Takashi Saito in the seventh inning, but if the starters and middle relief can hold a lead into the eighth we will be tough to beat, with Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford in line for the eighth and ninth innings, respectively. Granted, all must stay healthy, but I like our pitching staff.
On the defensive side we upgraded the left side of the infield with the signings of former Cubbie/Pirate Aramis Ramirez at third base and former Brave Alex Gonzalez at short stop. The only other defensive swap is at first base, where long-time prospect Mat Gamel finally gets his shot. I really don’t know if that will be a defensive upgrade or not. Many critics didn’t like Prince at first, but I was always optimistic about his performance. Gamel's main defensive problem when he played third was throwing, so hopefully he can field equal to Mr. Fielder. The Brewers added Japanese player Norichi Aoki, but otherwise the outfield remains intact from last year with NL MVP Ryan Braun (it’s as sweet as ever), Corey Hart, Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan all back in uniform.
It will be interesting to see how things pan out on the offensive side. As owner Mark Attanasio put it, "We lost a Silver Slugger at first base, but we added one at third base and I don’t think enough people are making that parallel." If Aramis can do what he did last year and for most of his career, he should provide adequate protection for reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun (does that sound awesome or what?). And if Mat Gamel can finally meet expectations, there is no reason to think we won’t be the same caliber team as last year. To me, the offense is tough to predict because someone like Carlos Gomez, when healthy, is amazing to watch track down balls in center field, but not necessarily as amazing at taking a pitch.
So that’s part of my logic and reasoning behind putting the Crew at the top of the standings after 162 games. I would love to hear your comments on why my GUESS is accurate or why you have a better guess. If you don’t want to share your reasoning, simply put the six teams in the order you think they will finish, guess the Brewers’ total wins and the Cubs’ total losses, and you will be entered to win a (blank) bobblehead! Even though the guesses are irrelevant until the end of the season, I may post the standings at different times throughout the season. I will contact the winner through Gazettextra.com to notify of the prize. I will give away the bobblehead whether I receive one entry or 100!
Just to avoid any legal stuff, I do want to state that this contest and the prize awarded have no affiliation with the Janesville Gazette or Bliss Communications. Winner must be alive to claim the prize and have an active Gazettextra.com account (so I can contact you). The winner will have the choice of either bobblehead. Entries must be posted by 3:10 p.m. on April 6. In the event of a tie after the two tie breakers, I will draw a random winner from any and all who have tied. Anyone who posts a guess is eligible to win, other than myself!
My picks:
1st place=Milwaukee Brewers
2nd place=St. Louis Cardinals
3rd place=Cincinatti Reds
4th place=Pittsburgh Pirates
5th place=Chicago Cubs
6th place=Houston Astros
Tie-breaker 1=Brewers will win 94 games
Tie breaker 2=Cubs will lose 88 games
I did actually have the Reds picked to finish second until newly signed closer Ryan Madson was lost for the season. That may not be a deal breaker, but it's a rough way to start.
One of my favorite people to follow on Twitter is @WISportsBlog. He is the authority on all things related to Wisconsin sports. He's also about to learn how to be dominated in fantasy baseball. I touched briefly on the Crew's upcoming season, but if you want in depth preview of the entire National League Central you must read @WISportsBlog preview here.
Good luck and go Brewers!
Tim Thompson is a carsalesman, farmer, and huge fan of the Milwaukee Brewers. He lives in Milton area with his wife and two kids. Tim is a community blogger and is not a part of The Gazette staff. His opinion is not necessarily that of the The Gazette staff or management.
Oct 5, 2012 at 2:03 p.m.
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Winning!
Apr 6, 2012 at 1:27 a.m.
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Good square contest.
I'll go fairly chalk, with a couple surprises.
1: CINCINNATI REDS: Have to go with my head over my heart here. Cincy is LOADED with pitching, both in the starting rotation, and a KILLER pen. Great combination of power, and speed in the line-up. Good improving young players, mixed in with solid veterans. Also a VERY advantageous home field ball park. Down side as ALWAYS with a Dusty Baker team, is will he over work the pitching arms?
2: MILWAUKEE BREWERS: Still a great core of players. The loss of Fielder WILL hurt them some (IMO). BIG hole to fill, but you still have talent all over the line up. Solid starting rotation, but can it hold up all season, and will they out play their norm as much as they were last season? Bull pen is still a bit shakey in middle relief. Still a HUGE advantage at home (much like Cinci has...Where the team is just MADE for their home ball park).. Need some players to breakout this year to take down Cinci, who is the clear team to beat IMO! I'll call 85 wins..
3: PITTSBURGH PIRATES: Probably reaching here, but it's a "live" longshot. Don't forget the pirates were actually in 1st place around all star break last year! It's the type of team a true baseball fan must love. Lot of non stars who just show up and play hard everyday! Well coached, and pitching there is actually very UNDER rated. Would be nice to see them 'in the hunt' lot of good fans there and proud tradition.
4: ST LOUIS CARDINALS: Maybe a bit to low, but I really think the loss of Pujolos, Waynewright, and Lurussa at skip is HUGE. Still have a lot of young studs like Freese, who will only improve. Just don't see enough pitching, and no Larussa to bring another miracle surge like last year!
5: CHICAGO CUBS: OK i won't go off with my Cub hatred. They simply don't have holes EVERYWHERE. I'll call 90 losses.
6: HOUSTON ASTROS: Perhaps thee worse team in ALL of baseball (probably not even 'perhaps' haha). Maybe would not even win a triple A title! No pitching, hitting, or anything. Flat out UGLY team!
Apr 4, 2012 at 10:06 a.m.
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Ok..... here are my picks
1st MILWAUKEE BREWERS 97 wins
2nd Cincinnati Reds Please not Cardinals
3rd St Louis Cardinals
4th Pittsburgh Pirates
5th Chicago Cubs 92 losses
6th Houston Astros
Apr 2, 2012 at 10:37 p.m.
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Ha. Good call!!
Apr 2, 2012 at 1:54 p.m.
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I totally agree with you Tim…as I am sure Manny Parra does as well. Front door burn on Manny and Prince.
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I have modest expectations for Gamel and Ramirez; I hope I they exceed my expectations.
Apr 2, 2012 at 12:14 p.m.
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Also kp: you know as well as any one that there are replacement factors beyond the stats. I think Hart said the other day that the off season moves made a better clubhouse this year. Back door burn on Prince.
Apr 2, 2012 at 11:44 a.m.
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Of course I'm setting myself up for a let down. Isn't that what the failed result of being optimistic is??
Sturmer: that's an absolute no-brainer. I dislike the cubs equal to u an Cowpie, but a brewers 100 win season?? Let's not forget a decade ago when our brewers lost 100. If that happens to the cubs we would get some enjoyment out of it, but not NEARLY as much as if the crew won 100. I can only assume you two have this talk in the middle of a case of PBR;)
Apr 2, 2012 at 10:07 a.m.
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Tim, I hope you’re right about Gamel and Ramirez, but I think you are setting yourself up for a serious letdown. If you combine their stats you will end up with about the same RBIs/HRs as one Prince Fielder (hopefully more they achieve more output), but you burn a spot in the batting order and also sacrifice about 20 points in batting average. Braun is no longer protected in the lineup. I expect a dip in his production as well.
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Projection for Gamel, A-Ram, and Brauny:
Gamel: .255 BA, 17 HR, 60 RBI
A-Ram: .280 BA, 24 HR, 85 RBI
Brauny: .305 BA, 26 HR, 90 RBI
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Prince Fielder in 2011: .299 BA, 38 HR, 120 RBI
Braun 2011: .332, 33HR, 111 RBI
Apr 2, 2012 at 9:46 a.m.
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My picks are the same as yours Tim. I DID pick them before you I read yours. Great minds think alike. I will pick the Crew though to win 92 games and the Chubs to lose 92.
I think a good question to throw out there someday is "would you rather see the Brewers win 100 games or would you rather see the Cubs lose over 100 games and just have a downright embarrassing season?" This is a question Cowpie and I talk about quite often.
Mar 31, 2012 at 2:54 p.m.
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Gamel just cracked a grand salami!! I believe and I just may go get myself a Gamel Shirsey:)
Mar 31, 2012 at 2:52 p.m.
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Love it KP!! I will add that Ramirez/Gamel WILL adequately replace Mr. Fielder:)
Also, just because my uncle is technologically challenged and begged/pleaded to have his entries count, I am going to post his guess for him.
Mr. R.A. guesses....
1. St Loius
2. Milw – 91 wins
3. Cinn
4. Chi – 82 loses
5. Pitt
6. Houston
Mar 31, 2012 at 8:17 a.m.
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1. Reds (91-71)
2. Brewers (90-72)
3. Cardinals (89-73)
4. Pirates (75-87)
5. Cubs (74-88)
6. Astros (58-104)
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Tie Breaker 1: Brewers with 90 wins
Tie Breaker 2: Cubs with 88 losses
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This should be one of the most entertaining leagues in baseball to watch. I don't think losing Madson hurts Cinci that much and they are only one year removed from a 91 win season. 2011 was a bit of a fluke. If Chapman makes the rotation (he should) the Reds could pull away with the division.
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St. Louis would have been my pick to win the division if it weren't for the loss of both La Russa and Pujols. If either one was back this year I think they gain at laest two more wins. (Yes, La Russa coaching is worth a few wins)
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Milwaukee would have been my pick had they not lost Fielder. Pitching is identical to 2011 and is going to be very good. Ramirez and Gamel can't replace Fielder.
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The Pirates may finish higher than this too. Pitching is a big question mark, but they have a good young offense.
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My Cubbies will finish better than they did last year. This should be a trend over the next few years. Theo and Dale were the two biggest acquisitions last year. Playoff bound in 2014; WS in 2016. Take that to the bank...well maybe just buy some Mega Million lottery tickets...about the same odds.
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Astros = Brutal & AL bound...good luck.
Mar 30, 2012 at 8:50 p.m.
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1.Brewers
2.Cardinals
3.Reds
4.Cubs
5.Pirates
6.Astros
Tiebreaker1 - Brewers win 88 games
Tiebreaker2 - Cubs lose 88 games
Mar 30, 2012 at 3:18 p.m.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xBxZGQ1dJk
Mar 30, 2012 at 2:13 p.m.
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1. BREWERS
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Astros
6. Cubs
Brewers Wins: 101 wins
World Series appearance - wishing for a title.
Mar 30, 2012 at 1:16 p.m.
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'And if you think you know definitively who will win it, then let me ask you this---Who did you pick to win the World Series Championship in 2011??'
Are you speaking directly to me?? If you read the blog you would read that I am in no way definitively picking the Brewers to win. Reading the content would waste time though;) Also, I don't recall picking anyone to win the World Series, I may have biasedly picked the Rangers, but that still doesn't tell me what your point is:)
Mar 30, 2012 at 1:09 p.m.
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1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Brewers
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros
Brewers Wins: 81 wins
Cubs Losses: 84 losses
I know almost nothing about baseball though... I just wanted to get in on this. I'm pretty confident the cards will take number 1 though. Tough team.
Mar 30, 2012 at 1:02 p.m.
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1-CUBS
2-REDS
3-BREWERS
4-CARDINALS
5-HOUSTON
6-PIRATES
BREWERS - 78 WINS
CUBS - 40 LOSSES
Mar 30, 2012 at 12:16 p.m.
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1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Cubs
6. Astros
Brewers Wins: 100 wins
Cubs Losses: 100 losses
Mar 30, 2012 at 11:09 a.m.
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My point is, just like the immunity idol on "Survivor", the NL Central in 2012 is "UP FOR GRABS!!". And if you think you know definitively who will win it, then let me ask you this---Who did you pick to win the World Series Championship in 2011??? mmmm....???? Also, the expanded wild card makes it very, very interesting!!! That's why they go out and play 162....because you never, ever know. PLAY BALL!!
Mar 30, 2012 at 10:58 a.m.
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...or...even....just perhaps....
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
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Mar 30, 2012 at 10:56 a.m.
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or...maybe...
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
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---
Mar 30, 2012 at 10:54 a.m.
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Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
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Mar 30, 2012 at 9:16 a.m.
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1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Brewers
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros
Brewer wins: 80
Cub losses: 88
Mar 30, 2012 at 8:14 a.m.
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Oops, that is how many games the Cubs will win (74). Losses is 88.
Mar 30, 2012 at 8:12 a.m.
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Reds
Brewers
Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs
Astros
Brewers 89 games
Cubs 74 games
Mar 30, 2012 at 7:53 a.m.
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Brewers
Cardinals
Reds
Cubs
Pirates
Astros
Brewers wins - 89
Cubs losses - 87
Mar 29, 2012 at 8:59 p.m.
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What the heck... no idea why my picks are showing like that
Mar 29, 2012 at 8:57 p.m.
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0101010001010101110101010100101010101110101
10101010101101010101011101010101
10010101101110101010101010101
Mar 29, 2012 at 3:37 p.m.
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1st place= Cardinals
2nd place= Reds
3rd place= Brewers
4th place= Cubs
5th place= Pirates
6th place=Astros
Tie-breaker 1=Brewers will win 85 games
Tie breaker 2=Cubs will lose 93 games
Mar 29, 2012 at 3:35 p.m.
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1st place=Milwaukee Brewers
2nd place=St. Louis Cardinals
3rd place=Cincinnati Reds
4th place=Chicago Cubs
5th place=Pittsburgh Pirates
6th place=Houston Astros
Tie-breaker 1=Brewers will win 90 games
Tie breaker 2=Cubs will lose 84 games
Mar 29, 2012 at 3:28 p.m.
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1st place=Milwaukee Brewers
2nd place=St. Louis Cardinals
3rd place=Cincinatti Reds
4th place=Pittsburgh Pirates
5th place=Chicago Cubs
6th place=Houston Astros
Tie-breaker 1=Brewers will win 94 games
Tie breaker 2=Cubs will lose 88 games
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