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Wis. election could clear path for Democrats

MADISON, Wis. (AP) It's been a long time since Democrats held both houses of Wisconsin's Legislature and the governor's office all at once. Twenty-two years, to be exact.

Now, Democrats are banking voters on Nov. 4 will hand them control of Wisconsin government for the first time since "Top Gun" was in theaters. That could mean sweeping changes for the state. Or not.

With Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle backing Democratic majorities in the Assembly and Senate, the party could ram through an agenda that might include some form of universal health care and a statewide smoking ban.

But given the economic meltdown, whoever wins power likely will be too busy grappling with financial matters to do much of anything else, political experts say. Doyle announced earlier in October the state faces a $3 billion deficit in the next budget, and that hole could grow even larger.

"Overhanging all of this is the financial constraints of the state. You're just not going to be able to do everything you want to do," said University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political scientist Joe Heim.

Democrats last had carte blanche control of state government in 1986, when Tony Earl was governor. But Republican Tommy Thompson won election as governor that fall, and Republicans captured the Assembly and Senate majorities in 1994. They've held the Assembly ever since.

Split houses have resulted in bitter partisan quarrels. Bickering between Assembly Republicans and Senate Democrats last year, for example, delayed the state budget by four months.

Democrats hold an 18-15 edge in the Senate. Half of the chamber's 33 seats are up for election this year. Four Democrats are unopposed and two seats are vacant. In the Assembly, the GOP holds a thin 51-47 majority, with one independent lawmaker on the outside. All 99 seats are up for election, with 21 Democrats and five Republicans unopposed.

Democrats hope a wave of anti-Republican sentiment over the war in Iraq and the faltering economy will help them hold the Senate and finally put them over the top in the Assembly. Assuming that happens, Democrats would get a chance to push their stalled agenda.

That could include a $15 billion universal health care plan that passed the Senate but died in budget negotiations last year, banning smoking in all public places statewide, curbing third-party campaign ads, repealing caps on teachers' salaries, imposing windfall profit taxes on oil companies, advancing University of Wisconsin System budget requests and implementing tighter environmental regulations.

Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem, said the Democrats' plans would drive up taxes and strangle business development.

"The intrusion of government into our daily lives will grow exponentially in the first few months. That goes without debate. That is one of the most frightening aspects of the possibility (of Democrats winning both houses)," Huebsch said.

Most of that probably won't come to fruition, UW-La Crosse's Heim said.

The economic downturn and accompanying job losses mean less tax revenue for the state. That means lawmakers won't have the money they need to launch major initiatives. Perhaps the most significant effect a Democratic Legislature will have will be an on-time state budget, Heim said.

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee political scientist Mordecai Lee agreed. The Democrats might pass a smoking ban because it costs the state little and nibble around the edges of other issues, but big-time change takes dollars the state doesn't have, said Lee, himself a former Democratic state senator.

Plus, Lee said, passing many of those proposals would hand Republicans ammunition in the 2010 elections, and even Doyle's support might not be a constant. The governor has proved he's a moderate — he didn't back Senate Democrats' failed health care plan, for example — and probably wouldn't support any general tax increases to pay for projects.

"Gov. Doyle would be a moderating influence and would really lean on them not to jump off a cliff," Lee said.

Democrats say they aren't looking past the economy.

Jim Smith, director of the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee, wouldn't discuss anything except initiatives Assembly Democrats introduced in early October as job savers.

Those plans call for spending $30 million on the state's energy independence grant program and creating tax credits for energy research. They also would bar the state from contracting with companies that send jobs overseas and require oil companies and Wall Street businesses that generate money in Wisconsin to disclose their taxes.

"A wish list is irrelevant unless you're focused on the economy," Smith said. "If you're not talking about jobs, if you're not talking about the economy, you're not talking to voters."

Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker, D-Weston, didn't return messages. Doyle spokesman Lee Sensenbrenner declined comment, except to say the governor wants to see a Legislature that is "committed to meeting our budget challenges."

A Democratic victory in the Assembly is far from certain, though.

Huebsch said Republicans are anticipating a Democratic surge and have spent months convincing their constituents the GOP will protect their wallets. If Republicans hold on to the chamber, Huebsch said, they'll try to force tax credits for businesses, tax relief on capital gains and business incentives.

In other words, a recipe for two more years of gridlock, Lee said.

"These are tough issues," Lee said. "It's hard to compromise."