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Poll: Obama ahead in Big 10 states

By ASSOCIATED PRESS   Thursday, October 23, 2008 - 8:29 a.m.
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MADISON, Wis. (AP) A new poll shows that Barack Obama leads John McCain by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Minnesota and the other four states that make up the Big Ten Conference.

Obama opened a lead in seven states of the Big Ten Battleground Poll of registered voters, and those likely to register to vote before the election, compared to September when it showed him about tied with McCain.

The latest poll released Thursday comes just 12 days before the election. The poll was conducted between Sunday and Wednesday and has a margin of error of just over 4 percentage points.

The poll shows Obama up 10 points in Indiana, 11 points in Pennsylvania, and 12 points in Ohio. He is up 13 points in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 points in Minnesota, and 22 points in Michigan. And in his home state of Illinois, Obama is up 29 points.

The poll is led by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists in partnership with eight Big Ten universities.




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(30)
kiowamohican
Oct 28, 2008 at 1:57 a.m.
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I could care less about race. I only brought it up, because it may be misleading the poll #'s (which is what this thread is about). In all past major elections, the black candidate has always over polled from what the actual result turned out to be. Whether that happens in a Presidential election remains to be seen. Most care less about the issue of race, but the small %age who do, can be enough to skew polling #'s.

gmaof3
Oct 25, 2008 at 8:24 p.m.
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The whole "race" issue is SOOO idiotic. However, with a large elderly (sorry... I'm one of 'em... at fifty...) some views are so inbred, its difficult to see beyond the color of one's skin... Unfortunately these asinine ideals are simply moronic and archaic! Obama is fresh and insightful. The last thing I would support now is another 4 years of the same close minded, self serving republican crap that has our country in such a mess, as it is now.

For all the political crap on the networks... open your mind and hearts people... think beyond next week or next month or the next paycheck and look at what has transpired in the past 8 years. Seriously... more of the same will bankrupt this country we love so much!

Change? Not with republicans...

lynda
Oct 25, 2008 at 10:05 a.m.
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Geez: I don't see race when I see Obama. I see a person that wants to help dig us out of a mess that has taken 8 years to make. If people see race than I think they need to take their head out of the dirt and join those of us that think race does "not" enter into this picture.

JohnDoe
Oct 24, 2008 at 11:22 p.m.
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"No one really wants to bring up the question, because race is an issue that most wish to avoid in this race. It is however; an obvious concern for the Obama camp."
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It should be a concern for all Americans.

lynda
Oct 24, 2008 at 7:14 a.m.
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polert: Yes I took American History and probably have forgotten more than you ever learned. Thanks for nothing.

kiowamohican
Oct 24, 2008 at 1:20 a.m.
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The poll sited in this article also has a serious flaw in that it is of registered voters. Many registered voters never do vote, even though they tell the pollster who they are going to support. Likely voters has been proven time and time again to be much more accurate. If the people who did this poll really believe Obama is that far ahead in Indiana, I STRONGLY suggest they wager on that wild "theory" on the exchanges, as they can get a huge price for Obama to win that state. And yes, you can get action on individual states (www.intrade.com)

kiowamohican
Oct 24, 2008 at 1:14 a.m.
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The poll is obviously off in Ohio. Most data there has the race a dead heat. The big question that no one wants to talk about is will the "Bradley, or Wilder effect" take place. Those were famous races where the black candidate polled about 10 points ahead, and then lost the election. The theory is that people lie to pollsters. They don't want to appear to be a racist to the pollster calling, so they say they will vote for the black guy, and then when they actually go to the polls, the phonies sell out, and vote the other way. No one really knows for certain if that will happen in a national election, as the theory has never been tested on a large scale outside of a state governors race...Tom Bradley was a CA governor candidate in 1982, and Wilder was in VA governor's race in 89. No polling can accurately determine if current data you see in todays polls is flawed, or not. The races where the effect happened were many years ago, and the same sort of sentiment may not exist today. If it does; however, it will never show up in the polls, as you can't accurately poll people lying.
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No one really wants to bring up the question, because race is an issue that most wish to avoid in this race. It is however; an obvious concern for the Obama camp.

polert
Oct 23, 2008 at 9:07 p.m.
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GSrube what is your number I will call you a few times for John. I figure we can get you to spread the wealth a little sooner for Obama.

polert
Oct 23, 2008 at 6:55 p.m.
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Stewy much less anyone else you like free health care? Please do some research on the mistakes made in hospitals now. Also look up the problems with public elderly care. That is what free health care will be like.
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Have you every delete with a Health Insurance Company they are not always easy going. Then have you ever delete with your Government they are worse.
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How will affirmative action come into play with that system.

lakennedy
Oct 23, 2008 at 6:05 p.m.
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totellthetruth: Don't worry, he does. That's why this poll has a +- error of 4%. I'm glad you are doing your best to try and mess with the system, though. Why not just say you're not interested?

Professor
Oct 23, 2008 at 4:59 p.m.
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Minan--It was also felt, at the time (when travel was VERY difficult) that an electoral college system would be more likely to 'force' candidates to pay more attention to states with small populations. And, of course, this would also affect whether people from the small states would even bother to vote, since their small number in terms of population would make their input rather meaningless. Officially, the college (not actually a place, just a process) was adopted by our forefathers as a compromise between those who wanted Congress to elect the Pres/V.P., and those who advocated for direct elections by the people. Each state gets a number of electoral college votes, which is equal to the number of congressional reps the state has (add the number of senators (each state has two) plus the number of house reps., and that equals the number of electoral college votes each state has.) Good luck in your class.

Stewy
Oct 23, 2008 at 4:04 p.m.
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Obama is gong to bring these country back to gretness!!! I can't wait until I get free healthcare and have this war fought by lies ended when prsident obama takes over.

polert
Oct 23, 2008 at 4:02 p.m.
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Lynda it was something discussed in US history which is how the founding fathers designed our republic. What you are talking about is a democracy which is not our form of government.It is all explain with a little web search.

Spinmaster I will not have to move anywhere it is coming to me.

onelife2live
Oct 23, 2008 at 3:31 p.m.
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The only poll that counts is the poll on Nov 4th. I have never been polled. Probably because I am too busy working. I am tired of polls being the headline in the news everyday. They have been proven wrong before and will be wrong again imo

onelife2live
Oct 23, 2008 at 3:29 p.m.
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Yes but McCain is ahead in the Pac 10 conference...what is this football?! :)

lynda
Oct 23, 2008 at 2:56 p.m.
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rockstars: I agree with you 100% about why the popular vote can't make or break the election. Can anyone explain why the electoral vote supercedes the popular vote?

totellthetruth
Oct 23, 2008 at 2:10 p.m.
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lakennedy, I hope your professer knows that I always tell pollsters the exact opposite of how I am going to vote..

why_the_fuss
Oct 23, 2008 at 1:30 p.m.
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I think polls disenfranchise voters.

I am sure there are some that would see there candidate so far behind as a reason not to vote.

What purpose do polls really serve other than another thing for people to get all worked up about?

Why not just wait until election day and see what happens.

On a side note, if you don't vote for any reason - you don't deserve to complain

rockstars
Oct 23, 2008 at 11:55 a.m.
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Why are we still using the old outdated electoral college system? As far as I'm concerned, whomever wins the POPULAR vote should win the presidency, regardless of party affiliation. That is far more representative than the electoral college is when it concerns what the American people are voting for!

lakennedy
Oct 23, 2008 at 11:54 a.m.
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A professor of mine is in charge of this project, I can assure you that this poll is accurate as a poll can be.

janesvillean
Oct 23, 2008 at 11:43 a.m.
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Even if a national poll shows the candidates are "neck and neck", the election takes place state by state (as Republicans were happy to repeat numerous times after the 2000 election, in which Al Gore won the popular vote).

spinmaster
Oct 23, 2008 at 10:50 a.m.
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Man, polert, doesn't it hurt to be so cynical? I think you need to move to a different country (preferably communist) if those are really your beliefs. Then they might be true.

polert
Oct 23, 2008 at 10:43 a.m.
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AP yesterday said the candidates are neck, and neck which makes me feel there is no control in the media, and the polls are not accurate.

There is only two types of media in the world government ran, and corrupt media.

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