Excellent info reliasson!
That tells you exactly what all variables play into the price of gasoline. You can see the vast majority (57%) is set by the price of crude oil (which is traded globally on the NY Mercantile exchange).
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As I have posted many times on various posts, the biggest variable on the price of crude is the status of the US DOLLAR. A weak dollar will drive up crude oil, which is dollar denominated. There are other factors as well, but the dollar is king. Your top analysts at Goldman Scats, Lehman Brothers, ext have all written extensively about this.

Roy Eliasson Wrote Here's a look at each component and its role in the retail pump price:
Crude oil -- 57%
Finding the crude oil Getting the crude oil out of the ground Transporting the crude oil to the refinery Maintaining a reserve capacity of crude oil ProfitRefining the crude oil into gasoline -- 18%
Producing special blends of gasoline to meet local clean air government regulations Transporting the gasoline to the gas station ProfitSelling the gasoline at a station -- 11%
Operational costs Marketing costs ProfitTaxes, federal and state -- 20%

noggi:
I totally agree on your sentiments that a President has little to do with the nations economy. However; he/she does have SOME effect. Namely in tax policy. Supply siders (like myself) believe strongly in low taxes, and when a government does impose a high tax burden, it has proven time and time again to have adverse effects on an economies growth
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The other obvious thing the President has to do over an economy is who he appoints to the Federal Reserve. I feel it was a big mistake by Bush to keep Greenspan when he took office in 2000. Greenspan was reckless in the Clinton years in cutting interest rates to a ridiculous 0.75% in an attempt to avoid a recession; which he succeeded in doing so. However; making cuts of that sort of unprecedented magnitude spurred a massive bubble in housing/real estate, that you are now seeing the effects of in the bubble busting. The polices of new chairman (Ben Bernacki) are not all that great either; as his policies have lead to this insane collapse of the US dollar, which in turn drives up commodities that are all dollar denominated, as my post below details.

The rise in gas prices will do more to conserve oil and force emphasis on increased mileage per gallon, halt the SUV.truck trend, and generally conserve energy than Congress ever did.

I ralize people are going to get hit when it comes to "must drive" trips to work but I have faith in the ingenuity of the American people. Carpooling hasn`t gained much since the gas prices went up but it is time it did. Soccer mom trips, and other family activities may have to be coordinated and pooled but just maybe these prices, although hard to stomach, may be the best thing that ever happened to us as regards energy conservation.

An after thought for those who blame the President for the state of the economy. We have never had and probably never will have a President who can control the economy. It is a "people controlled economy". The reason it is a little rough now is the fault of "people" - maybe your neighbor who borrowed more than he could afford, who lied on his mortgage application, was dumb enough to think rates always go down, not up. The one who "wanted it all" now instead of saving / working for it. "The enemy is us".The good thing is that it is a cyclic operation and things will even out. Buckle down, be creative about gas price solutions and we`ll all be OK.

Don`t depend on the government to bail you out.---Ever--

He makes some good points; however there is some fundamental flaws in the reasoning. For one, the core inflation index does NOT take into consideration the prices of food or energy. So using the price of oil based off the rate of inflation, is inaccurate. If energy and food were taken into inflation data, the rate would be entirely different, and in turn would throw all the numbers off.
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The 2nd problem is that your basing the rise in cost of a commodity that is traded GLOBALLY. This throws all sorts of new variables into the equation. Oil is traded in US dollars, of course, but the relative strength of the US dollar vs the other major world currencies (Euro, yen) is going to have all sorts of effects on the price. The US only consumes roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, the other 80% is being bought by other currencies, and in turn their relative strength to the US dollar will be what determines their price. That is why oil has actually went up very little what so ever the past few years when weighed in Euro's or Yens; as those currencies have become very strong while the US dollar has weakened. The reason gas at the pump in many other countries is more, is of course because of taxes; as some have all ready sited.
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An interesting side note that should be pointed out is that the oil companies have a very small profit margin. Exxon Mobile (and most all the major oil companies..Chevron, BP, Conoco, ext) posted a 10% gross profit margin last year. So about every $0.35 cents you pay per gallon at the pump goes to the "big oil" company in profit. For all the whining you hear about the "huge profits that big oil is making", it should be pointed out that th STATE itself is often making MORE money of the gas in taxing it. The federal tax on gasoline is $0.19 while many states it's well over $0.40 per gallon. So even though the taxes are low in this country on gas compared to many other nations, the government is STILL making a bigger profit margin on the gasoline then are the oil companies!

Roy Eliasson Wrote The Real Story Behind Gas Prices

As recently as September 2001, the cost of a barrel of crude oil was $18.00, today the cost of a barrel hovers around the $62.00 mark, resulting in increased prices at the pump. However, the term "record highs"
is based on a common economic fallacy -- a failure to adjust for inflation over time. General inflation raises the overall level of prices throughout the economy. The real issue is whether gasoline prices are rising relative to the other costs of goods and services. And if we measure energy and gas prices correctly, we find that gasoline, although the price has risen recently, is still affordable in historical terms. Adjusting for inflation we had higher retail gasoline prices as recently as 1985, and significantly higher prices from 1979 to the mid 1980s. Long term data on energy and gas prices tells us that gasoline prices paid at the pump have been on a steady rate of decline since the 1920s, with the obvious exception of the 1970s, when we faced an OPEC embargo and gasoline lines. In 1920 the real price of gas (excluding taxes) was twice as high as today. If the price of gasoline relative to wages were comparable today to what they were in 1920, we would be paying almost $10 a gallon for gas. American motorists should be pleased that the United States does not adopt the high-energy tax policies that are commonplace in Europe. European gasoline often exceeds $4 a gallon with more than half the price collected in taxes. That is one of the major reasons VPCGA successfully opposed legislation in the General Assembly that would have increased the state gas tax 76% from 17.5 to 30.6 cents per gallon, making Virginia's gasoline tax the highest in the nation.

Roy Eliasson wrote Think a gallon of gas is expensive?
This makes one think, and also puts things in perspective.
Diet Snapple 16 oz $1.29 ... $10.32 per gallon
Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz $1.19 ..........$9.52 per gallon
Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 ..... $10.17 per gallon
Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 ......... $10.00 per gallon
Brake Fluid 12 oz $3.15 ...... $33.60 per gallon
Vick's Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ... $178.13 per gallon
Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 .. $123.20 per gallon
Whiteout 7 oz $1.39 ....... . $25.42 per gallon
Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 .....$84.48 per gallon
And this is the REAL KICKER...
Evian water 9 oz $1.49..$21.19 per gallon! $21.19 for WATER and the buyers don't even know the source
(Evian spelled backwards is Naive

Only problem with using that is that when you use the 1996 dollar as your constant, your numbers are extremely skewed; as the US dollar has fallen considerably over the past 12 years. Of course the declining US dollar is the main reason for higher crude oil prices; as world oil prices are denominated off the US dollar; as are most all major commodities, and hence why you have seen all commodities take off in price the past few years.

Roy Eliassson Wrote Cost of gas The Energy Information Administration reports gasoline roy Eliasson prices in both nominal and real terms. The real prices are adjusted for the roy eliasson effects of inflation by applying the implicit GDP price deflators to compare prices in constant 1996 dollars. As the chart shows, the current "record high" price is quite moderate by historical standards. We had higher retail gasoline prices as recently as 1985, and significantly higher prices from 1979 to the mid 1980s

CON'T

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Unfortunately, North Americans have organized their daily lives
around their cars. These days, millions of people cannot go to
work, take kids to school, go grocery shopping, etc., without
starting a car. Soon, many of them will not be able to afford
driving a car. I dare not think about that for the moment. But,
shrinking wallets, disposable income's disappearing act, and
plummeting consumer spending are some of the adverse effects
that come to mind.

On the other hand, areas in North America known to be oil-rich,
such as Canada's western provinces, are likely to benefit from high
prices, mostly in terms of jobs, tax revenues and what that money
could buy for their citizens. Only, with this cake, you can't have it
and eat it, too, for there isn't that much oil to satisfy global
"guzzlers" and have enough left over to meet growing domestic
needs. "

Here is a really good article written by Inya Ivkovic. She is a Canadian economist who focuses on the world oil markets. Contrary to popular belief the US gets the majority of its foreign oil NOT from the middle east, but in fact from Canada and Mexico. This report documents very nicely why many (including myself) feel oil will continue to rise in price, and that we are on the very of a major energy crisis.
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"Chief economist with CIBC World Markets, Jeff Rubin, said
something cheeky and rather frightening in his recent report,
predicting that crude oil prices could bully their way past the
$200.00-per-barrel mark within the next five years! According to
Rubin, by 2010, oil could trade at an average $150.00 per barrel.
And $150.00 per barrel would seem cheap compared to more than
$200.00 per barrel forecasted by 2012. But if or when it happens
(this is more of a case of "when" than "if"), the North American
economy could fundamentally change forever.

In Rubin's own words, 'Whether we are already at the peak of
world oil production remains to be seen, but it is increasingly clear
that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented
scarcity." Rubin bases these words on the fact that, in the past two
years or so, global crude oil production has more or less vegetated
at approximately 85 million barrels being pumped on any given
day.

At the same time, the global demand for fossil fuel has reported
leaping growth rates, particularly in the liquid natural gas segment.
According to Rubin, over the next five years, the demand for crude
oil could grow at a dizzying rate of one million barrels every single
day. "Millions of new households will suddenly have straws to
start sucking at the world's rapidly shrinking oil reserves," said
Rubin, rather eloquently.

What would such a depressing state in the crude oil market mean
to ordinary people around the globe? For starters, unrelentingly
increasing oil prices are likely to wreak serious havoc on North
America's industrial base, potentially devastating it, along with
evaporating millions of jobs. The market sector that first springs to
mind as the most evident among victims is the auto industry.

Most comments from Eastern reporters and papers are likely to belittle the gas hikes as cars in NY, Boston are not used like we use them. They seem out of touch with the commuters who live in Janesville but drive to Madison, Chicago, Milwaukee to work.
They will ask about vacations that will not be taken but the people it really hits are the one's that have to drive to work to afford the gas that gets them to work!
Businesses pass off gas increases as "trip surcharge", food prices increase because of delivery costs, our truckers suffer so it affects our pocketbook more then just the cost of gas in our auto.

Ha. I'm just like you. I ALWAYS put small bits of gas in my car. I cannot wrap my head around dropping $45 at once on gas. Man, it sucks.

I commute to work - 30 miles one way - and it is killing me.

The has been a few good stories in the Wall Street Journal about the "breaking point" of gasoline costs. Most economists calculations seem to think that breaking point is in the $4.50 to $5.00 area. At that point people really start to cut back on other spending, and since we live in such a consumer driven economy, you will obviously have a major economic slowdown, and even quite possibly a recession (despite what you read, no one will no if we are in recession until GDP numbers come out...You need two straight quarters of negative GDP growth for a recession. We have yet to have one, and it will be very interesting to see the 2008 2nd Q numbers).
Of course the high gas prices also add costs to almost everything else; as most goods are have shipping costs, and those shipping costs are going up and up with the rising fuel costs.
Imagine driving a semi truck. Those guys are spending over $1,200 just to fill up!! Most shipping costs are passed of to the consumer. Some of the bigger companies wisely hedge their fuel costs by playing crude oil futures on the merc.....
The average Joe can actually do that as well, believe it or not. If you have an on-line trading account, you can buy future contracts in crude oil. If the price keeps going up you'll cash in very nice on those contracts. If oil goes down, you loose out on your futures, but save at the pump..
All the data I have read would make me believe that oil will keep going up. There are many reasons for this, and it's really unfortunate because the people that it really hurts the most are your middle/lower working class.

Gas prices have grounded any type of extracurricular driving for me. My budget allows for $20 every two weeks. I don't do any extra driving. I drive to work and drive home and try to do my errands all in one day. I do errands within my neighborhood and don't leave my side of town unless I have to, I don't drive out of town, I don't give rides and I don't like the fact that gas goes up in price overnight.

I've been pulling overtime at work so I can afford a little extra for gas since $20 put 1/4 of a tank in my car at last "fill up".

I wish I could afford one of those hybrids. Almost all of my driving is in-town and I'd probably save a bundle on gas.

I fool myself by paying with a credit card.
I know. That's no solution.
But, it hurts less right there AT the pump, even though it's certainly a shocker when the bill comes.

I guess we all should think of those electric mopeds. They may not be real cheap to buy but may help keep some of that money in your wallet that we are spending at the gas station. I for one live in a very rural area. Closest grocery is about 8 miles so one day a week is all I go. It sure does help when staying home so much, to get the household chores done!

the traffic and exhaust fumes are a large reason why I stick to the backroads of Janesville when walking and biking! The bike path through Janesville is wonderful for recreation, but it is unfortunately not utilizable when errand-running on foot or by bike.

Nice weather definitely makes it easier to not drive places. I'm going to try and be better about walking/biking when I can.

Janesville isn't the most walkable city on Earth (sorry, but have YOU tried walking down Milton Avenue or Highway 14?), but some places, especially downtown, are pretty accessible.

Well, yesterday afternoon I decided I wanted to rent a movie after a long day of gardening and yard work. Exhaustion was already setting in, so I decided to pack my dog up into the car and head to the video store a couple of miles from our home. Guilt set in the closer I got to the store...I will not be driving to the video store again (or any store within a few miles of my home) as long as it's decent weather and I'm able to ride my bike or walk.