Local economy slogging on
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According to local economic dashboard indicators, sales of homes, like this east-side Janesville residence, have increased.
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Rock County Economic Dashboard
JANESVILLE — Its relative history might be brief, but the Gazette's quarterly survey of the local economy finally has some better news: Five of its six indicators are improved.
The Gazette launched its economic dashboard a year ago. Completely unscientific, it looks at six economic indicators for Rock County and compares them with previous quarters.
That's nine quarters of economic activity that date back to July 2009.
Strangely enough, The National Bureau of Economic Research says the "Great Recession" ended in June 2009, a month earlier, even though the bureau wasn't certain of this until September of the following year.
Still, the local economy has lagged. There have been several bright spots, but Rock County is by no means alone in its struggle for economic traction to drive out of the hole.
While county residents aren't likely to break out in "Happy Days Are Here Again," the third-quarter numbers—when compared to the second quarter—might be a reason to at least stretch out the vocal chords.
Here's why:
Retail sales? Up.
New vehicle registrations? Up.
Home sales and average prices? Better.
Bankruptcy filings? Down.
Unemployment? Improved.
Foreclosure filings was the only indicator with unfavorable movement. It jumped to 276 filings in the third quarter, up from the 225 reported in the second quarter. Still, that was considerably less than the comparable third quarter 2010.
That reflects a national trend. New reports from two industry trackers show that lenders are beginning to speed up their home-repossession practice, which has been hampered due to last year's "robo-signing" scandal.
Foreclosure filings began dropping in September 2010 as major banks initiated moratoriums to deal with paperwork problems. Lenders discovered employees and affiliates had been signing thousands of foreclosure documents without properly reviewing the details of each case. The increases are an indication that foreclosures delayed by the slowdown are beginning to work their way through the system.
"While foreclosure activity in September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up," said Jeff Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, one of the industry tracking companies.
With that exception, the local economy appears to be improving.
"I don't think we're headed for a double dip recession," said Russ Kashian, an economics professor and the director of the Fiscal and Economic Research Center at UW-Whitewater. "We're slowly plotting our way out of this, but it's a long, irritating process."
James Otterstein, Rock County's economic development manager, said the most significant local economic indicator is job growth, which right now he said could best be described by several adjectives: anemic, sluggish, weak.
He said that while the dashboard shows a drop in unemployment, there are many people who argue that the area's "true" unemployment rate is probably two or three points higher because the "official" rate does not include discouraged workers who have simply stopped looking for work.
"However … the trends reflected in the dashboard data sets are hard to argue against," he said. "Trend lines are moving in the right direction, and these movements provide signals that, at least when measured against those traditional indicators, the economy is incrementally improving."
Otterstein said he has collected data from Rock County employers in the last 18 months that support the trend lines.
Specifically, he found that 86 percent indicated they would be developing or offering new products during the next two years. Fifty-five percent said they were increasing their market share, and 57 percent expected to expand within the three years.
"While some of these projects have materialized, others remain to be determined and are subject to various factors," Otterstein said.
Continued certainty, he said, leads to increased stability.
"Increased stability, in turn, creates the necessary confidence level where businesses feel comfortable enough to make those capital deployment decisions that help facilitate the flow of income and wealth throughout the economy," Otterstein said.
Kashian said he's been impressed with Rock County's resiliency, particularly with the economic blow it sustained.
Still, he said, the recovery will be slow.
"It's kind of like when you find yourself at the bottom of a hole and you see the sun come out," he said. "You want to believe that happy days are here again.
"Things are getting better, but I'm not sure there's any great cause for celebration yet."
Oct 22, 2011 at 10:58 a.m.
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Holding your breath? Blue in the face, or is that your fist?
Oct 22, 2011 at 10:26 a.m.
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re: Fisker. The Energy Department knew before the loan was even awarded that the company's first, small run would be made overseas. The Wall Street Journal reported that in 2009, as did other news outlets.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2009/09...
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/06...
$169 million has already been spent for R&D in the U.S. The rest of the loan will be used to build a second, cheaper car in Wilmington, Deleware.
http://www.freep.com/article/20111022/NE...
To sum up, this is old news, except to ABC News.
Oct 22, 2011 at 10:05 a.m.
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taxandspend, unemployed people are still considered unemployed even if their benefits have run out. They only fall off the unemployed count if they either get a job, or stop looking for a job.
It's a common misconception that only UC benefits are used to count the unemployed. Do some research.
Oct 22, 2011 at 8:18 a.m.
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Don't mock me my friend. It's a condition of mental divergence. I find myself on the planet Ogo, part of an intellectual elite, preparing to subjugate the barbarian hordes on Pluto. But even though this is a totally convincing reality for me in every way, nevertheless Ogo is actually a construct of my psyche. I am mentally divergent, in that I am escaping certain unnamed realities that plague my life here. When I stop going there, I will be well. Are you also divergent, friend?
Oct 22, 2011 at 8:18 a.m.
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Don't mock me my friend. It's a condition of mental divergence. I find myself on the planet Ogo, part of an intellectual elite, preparing to subjugate the barbarian hordes on Pluto. But even though this is a totally convincing reality for me in every way, nevertheless Ogo is actually a construct of my psyche. I am mentally divergent, in that I am escaping certain unnamed realities that plague my life here. When I stop going there, I will be well. Are you also divergent, friend?
Oct 21, 2011 at 7:20 p.m.
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"Retail sales going up in the big box stores is not necessarily a good thing for the local economy IF half of the money is going to China, Guatemala and the Middle-East."
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Quit bitchin. Pretty soon, you'll be able to buy an Finnish electric sports care for $89K. Barry set that up for you. To contribute to his reelection fund, just go to yeahIsaidIwouldgiveyouhopebutIliedbecaus...
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:40 p.m.
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And thx. Chk your email.
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:38 p.m.
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I was being facetcious, GM. It's a line from an old commercial.... Not a commerical Janet Reno would appreciate, but I liked it. You get my drift, I think. We're on the same boat, like if I told you that Gollum went to Jared.
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:34 p.m.
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Robot_Lord_of_Tokyo
I don't "hate you" RoboTo... I just don't think others "get" our twisted posts. I'm slammed here all the time! But I have very thick-skin! Don't know - Don't care.
I like the flavor of your posts though...
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:23 p.m.
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I get rather bored, gm. Don't hate me because I'm beautiful........
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:22 p.m.
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"Target, Farm & Fleet and Kmart are all in the same boat."
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SWAF (you kill me), for you to lump Bert Blain in with companies like Target and Walmart is like to saying that Cozumel Restaurant (one of my favs) competes with Taco Bell for market share. Bert Blain and his family gave back to the community, and continue to do so in ways that Big Box Stores never will. From Janesville, by Janesville, and FOR Janesville. You made a completely ignorant statement that offended me and everyone else in Janesville that appreciates home-grown business that employs our friends and our families with a heart.
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:17 p.m.
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Robot_Lord_of_Tokyo...
However, you are a freaking hilarious read! Luvin' it!
Keep up the great posts dude!!!
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:13 p.m.
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Robot_Lord_of_Tokyo
Have read your posts... You haven't been here long, but you are a troll...
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:11 p.m.
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"and making a hell of of a ruckus."
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Brian Johnson: "Could you describe the ruckus, sir? (The Breakfast Club)
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:09 p.m.
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Our company is booming. We keep hiring and no one EVER leaves of their own accord, unless they have had a change in family dynamics. Over half of our employees have been with the company for 10 to 20 years. MY boss, a woman in her early 50's has been with the company for 26 years. We have full bennies... health care, dental, 401K (which the company matches 50% of 6% invested yearly by the employee) also yearly Christmas bonuses equal to 2 weeks of pay for EVERY employee and other perks throughout the year. AND, NON union!
Jobs are out there... but people need to step out of their comfort zone.
If you were in retail, try customer service. If you were in manufacturing... you're used to production, the field is wide open.
Seriously... jobs are out there....
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:08 p.m.
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Hey, SWAF, where do you buy your bean sprouts? Do you drive a Prius? Just curious.
Oct 21, 2011 at 4:22 p.m.
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Retail spending at big box stores returns a small portion -- maybe 10 or 20 cents on the dollar -- to the local economy through wages (and a smaller amount through sales and property taxes), but the bulk of the money goes outside this community. It's nice that we have a regional shopping hub in Janesville, but it isn't the whole measure of our local economy by a long short. At the same time, it does provide a bright spot showing that we ain't dead yet. It's a mixed bag.
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whzbng, no manufacturer could use the GM plant without buying it from GM, and there's no indication it's for sale. Right now it is part of the labor agreement with the UAW to hold it in standby status. By contrast, the Delaware facility that Fisker (uh, Fiskars is the scissors brand) purchased was spun off from GM during bankruptcy and is an "old GM" property, while Janesville is a "new GM" property.
http://www.grist.org/cleantech/2011-10-2...
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In short, we are stuck with GM in limbo until they and the UAW agree to either make cars here or close it entirely.
Oct 21, 2011 at 12:58 p.m.
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Unclesmoothie, I have made a personal committment to myself to never, ever shop at Wal-Mart unless whatever I am seeking cannot be found at the other stores. In the past 20 years, I have spent about a total $60 at Wal-Mart. That doesn't really do anything in the grand economic scale since many stores, Target, Farm & Fleet and Kmart are all in the same boat. But it gives me a sense of satisfaction that I found very enjoyable. That is what counts. But as far as complaining about the influx of foreign made goods, I don't qualify those complaints on where people shop if the complaints are fact-based and legitimate. There is a serious problem with our trade imbalance that is siphoning jobs and capital out of our country and I think everyone, no matter where they shop, should be complaining, protesting and making a hell of of a ruckus.
Oct 21, 2011 at 12:25 p.m.
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Yet most of the people who complian about foreign products in the U.S. will all be racing to Walmart tonight to spend their hard earned money on that crap.
Oct 21, 2011 at 12:20 p.m.
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Retail sales going up in the big box stores is not necessarily a good thing for the local economy IF half of the money is going to China, Guatemala and the Middle-East.
Oct 21, 2011 at 11:41 a.m.
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Retail sales are going thru the roof at Farm and Fleet. Yesterday they had to have 10 people directing traffic just to find a place to park. The checkout lines were stretched to the back of the store and most carts were loaded to overflowing.,Same today. Drive over to Pine Tree Plaza and Tx Roadhouse had a full parking lot. Local economy looks like it is booming Question?. Did Fiskars even look at the Janesville plant. They claim they could not find a facility in the US that could manufacture their car.
Oct 21, 2011 at 11 a.m.
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The story says retail sales are "up." If you look at the first and second quarters of the year, yes they are up. However, retail sales can be quite seasonal or cyclical. Most retailers will also look at the same quarter from the previous year to measure how they are doing. Compare last year's third quarter to this year's. Not so good! If sales tax from auto purchases is included in the sales tax figures that were used for the dashboard's findings, the results for general retail are even worse because auto sales are apparently up based on the reported number of units sold. (Whether more units translates to more dollars sold is unclear.) Deeper analysis of each dashboard segment would be needed in order to proclaim that our local economy is truly improving. But for a few brief moments, it's nice to think we might be seeing a tiny glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel!
Oct 21, 2011 at 9:11 a.m.
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Forgive the typos below btw,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/busine...
Yes, things are just so wonderful that Walmart, the land of a zillion low paying jobs to support America's lust for junk is cutting their crummy insurance options, never mind that their standard low pay pretty much assures that employees who are part time (which are most) would only be able to get health coverage through public assistance. Yes, let private industry take care of you, or in other words, let private industry make sure you have no other options but the one they give you. We lose either way, but lose bigger when core services are privatized.
Oct 21, 2011 at 9:05 a.m.
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"Sigma40" (I'm assuming you named yourself after the Sigma 40 cal, one of the worst cheapest and worst and firearms you can buy, right?) wrote: "The reason people are unemployed is because they have no personal accountability"
I knew there was a reason I didn't open the gazette comment section anymore, and thank you for reminding me that ignorance is still king around here.
Oct 21, 2011 at 9:01 a.m.
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Read lovemycountry's comment below. He is spot on.
Oct 21, 2011 at 8:59 a.m.
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Sigma40: You obviously don't live on planet earth. You are not even living in the REAL WORLD.
Oct 21, 2011 at 8:56 a.m.
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WTP...you quit a 15 dollar an hour job ? See, this is the problem,people don't want to work for what they are worth.
Oct 21, 2011 at 8:44 a.m.
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There is still a global quadrillion credit bubble that has yet to burst. When it unwinds, it will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park. You ain't seen nothing yet.
Oct 21, 2011 at 7:35 a.m.
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wtp, go to John Deere in Moline Illinois. I did. You may only start at $15 to $18 to start depending on your skills but you will move up quickly. Go to johndeere.com to check employment opportunities.
Oct 21, 2011 at 7:19 a.m.
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sigma40 Ok I quit my 15.00 job to go and inprove myself for a 20.00 job. You must be in never never land to believe there is going to be a 20.00 job today. Oh I don't say there are no 20.00 jobs, however they are far and few behind. I will be the first in line for that 20.00 job you claim is out there.
Oct 21, 2011 at 7:17 a.m.
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I was looking at the dashboard and it looks as though our houses are selling for significantly less money and that foreclosures are on the rise again.
Oct 21, 2011 at 6:07 a.m.
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Hmmm. If you made the same amount of money 15 years ago as you do today... that is YOUR FAILURE. There is nothing keeping you from advancing except your own lack of skills, knowledge and determination. There you go again blaming everything else. The reason people are unemployed is because they have no personal accountability. Example just proved. Its no one elses responsibility to better yourself than you. If you cant grasp this you'll forever be miserable, unemployed, or stuck at your low pay job complaining.
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Consumer spending, unemployment rates....etc.. are all generic numbers you read in the media that are made up statistics with no value... go out and look at the real world once... you'll laugh.
Oct 21, 2011 at 5:18 a.m.
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The Rock County Economic Dashboard is a great example of responsible journalism. I applaud The Gazette for its effort.
Oct 21, 2011 at 2:35 a.m.
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Sigma40 never met a conspiracy theory he didn't hear through his teeth. o_O
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The economy is all right for some people, and economic activity is inching back up, but this is the most serious decline in American standards of living since the Great Depression. A few sunny spots cannot really make up for the overall rainstorm.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/1...
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There hasn't been a great increase in consumer spending. It's been basically flat since the crash. As always, retail sales increase for Christmas, but year to year they are not really growing.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/consumer_s...
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Needless to say, without a recovery in demand, i.e. consumer spending, we won't see a real economic recovery and a reduction in unemployment.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch...
Oct 20, 2011 at 10:06 p.m.
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truth1: I don't agree. Credit card debt in this country is continually decreasing as people try to pay off debt. What is increasing is student loan debt which is in the neighborhood of an astounding $1 trillion in part due to all of the unemployed people going back to school. As for the article comment on businesses wanting to expand, while they may want to expand the reality is that lending practices are still very tight when it comes to small business loans and lines of credit and until credit loosens up I think it will be tough for them to grow. I think it's going to be a long time before things really turn around.
Oct 20, 2011 at 9:14 p.m.
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All that"spending" is probably borrowed money and credit cards, just like before.
Oct 20, 2011 at 9:09 p.m.
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The economy is booming?...Really??
When the same jobs that paid $15 an hour 15 years ago pay $10 today, that's booming???
Oct 20, 2011 at 7:53 p.m.
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The only thing wrong with the economy is the people who think something is wrong with it and keep crying. The economy is booming regardless what you hear/see in the media. For some unknown govt trick they want you to think the economy is bad. Places are expanding, new strip malls going up, Intel just set its record best quarter ever, places cant find help, and did you drive by farm and fleet today? It was worse than black friday...everyone is out spending.
Oct 20, 2011 at 7:26 p.m.
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The sad part is this "recovery" will get slower and slower over the next 13 months.
Oct 20, 2011 at 5:27 p.m.
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For comparison, home prices have recovered to the 2004 level, primarily due to a decline in distressed sales (foreclosures, mostly) that don't necessarily reflect market value. Unemployment is back to the point it shot up to locally after GM closed.
Oct 20, 2011 at 4:16 p.m.
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This is good news for Rock County even though it is slow.
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