I didn't read the entire article because the headlines got me depressed. Seriously, that and the fact that it's inferred here about GM. We will perservere!

He hasn't lived up to his claim of "thats a commitment I make to you as President" yet either...but I suppose that is not the as a promise; and none of these commitments made it into the stimulus bill, or any other for that matter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5t8GdxFY...

mymaro, yes, it was a PROJECTION, and they were obviously off. My point was, for others to say Obama PROMISED anything is a lie.

Ahh, politicians and their sophisticated mumbo jumbo..........funny how people that get "jobs" at half(or less) the pay they were getting are considered still just as "employed".

In all fairness, and I admit Im tired of Obamas hollow promises, he inherited a MESS. To say the least. I believe his intentions were good, but unachievable.

They are referring to a Jan. 9, 2009, report called "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" from Christina Romer, chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, the vice president's top economic adviser.

Their report projected that the stimulus plan proposed by Obama would create between three and four million jobs by the end of 2010. The report also includes a graphic predicting unemployment rates with and without the stimulus. Without the stimulus (the baseline), unemployment was projected to hit about 8.5 percent in 2009 and then continue rising to a peak of about 9 percent in 2010. With the stimulus, they predicted the unemployment rate would peak at just under 8 percent in 2009.
________________________

http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documen...

"Such pessimism does not show faith in our great leader who promised 4 million jobs and an unemployment rate that wouldn't get above 8%. Plus, he promised rising wages and a falling deficit."

Please prove where the President "promised" any of those things.

carlitosway, are you dense? It's been posted several times. Read section 2 here:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#wher...

Where do the statistics come from?
Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed persons in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics of such persons. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percent of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Nobody said Pete couldn't post. But if he is going to post (often unreliable) quotes in unrelated topics and make things up when he doesn't understand, well, he chooses to post things which people will challenge.
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As it happens, Wisconsin's dependence on manufacturing -- we're the state with the highest percentage of our workforce in that sector, now -- is actually helping our unemployment rate fall faster than the US rate over the last six months as durable goods orders have increased. It's not a lot but it is something.

Here is the State's description of how the rates are determined:

The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces the labor force, employment, unemployment, and unemployment rate estimates for around 7,000 areas in the United States. Areas included are all states, counties, Workforce Development Areas, Small Labor Market Areas, Metropolitan Divisions, Combined Statistical Areas, Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and cities with a population of at least 25,000 people.

Wisconsin monthly estimates are developed in conjunction with the State’s Department of Workforce Development and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimates are formed using models. Inputs include current and historical data from the Decennial Census, the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and the state Unemployment Insurance (UI) system.

The State LAUS model utilizes a monthly Real-Time Benchmarking procedure to the National Current Population Survey (CPS) estimates. The entire nation is divided into 9 Census Divisions. Wisconsin is in the East North Central Division, which also includes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Every month, all state estimates in each division add to the division CPS total and all divisions add to the national CPS total.

Annual historical benchmarking consists of updating model inputs and population controls, model re-estimation, smoothing, and controlling to revised monthly historical benchmarked estimates at the division level, which in turn will sum to the monthly national CPS estimates. The monthly benchmarking procedure significantly reduces end-of-year revisions.

Some primary data users of LAUS data are federal, state, and local governments, private industries, and individuals. The statistics are used for determining fund allocations, establishing the need for employment and training services, and assessing local labor market conditions.

Contact: Heather Thompson - (608) 267-5053

Lets clear the air on this one . The unemployment numbers are calculated by useing a bowl of water sitting in the sun , if the water is less in the morning than the day before, then the unemployment rate in rock county has fallen , and from that point its a guess at how much it has fallen because they do not have any points of measurement to gauge it on . Kinda like a rain gauge .

Pete: I don't think that quote is actually from the Adolph himself, but his propaganda minister, Joseph Gerbils, who was really the brains behind the Nazi regime.
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In any event; you are correct that unemployment will be at 10% or better for some time. I'm not one to site sources on a blog; as it's just casual talk with fellow area citizens. If you really doubt peoples facts, you can look them up yourself, and refute them if they are not correct. As I post earlier; it's GDP growth that will spur job growth. Unemployment crashed because GPD growth went into heavily negative territory (hit over -6%). Despite what any governmnet spin meister will tell you, government or stimulus does NOT create jobs. The jobs they claim have been created, or saved, are just a drop in the bucket and in reality only a few thousand compared to the hundreds of thousands that have been lost in the private sector by the month as the economy has contracted (GDP wise).
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To spur real job growth, which happens in a growing PRIVATE SECTOR, you need a solid 3%, or better, GPD growth. That is not even being predicted by the most optimistic economists. The best estimates are only 2% or so GPP growth in the coming year. The more realistic estimate is flat line growth (-1 to +1%).
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Some are pointing to the recent run up in the stock market as a sign of growth to come, as wall street is often a leading indicator of things. When the reality is that the recent string of good earnings that have driven this rally(amazing that the banks that took bailout $$$ are all having RECORD profit quarters now; haha)is mostly the result of companies DOWNSIZING, and streamlining their costs to stay profitable, and beat analysts estimates.
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In short; there is NO signs of any real growth in this economy, and unemployment will be a leading indicator of even worse times ahead. One can, of course, and rightfully blame this on the horrific policies that have been put into place by our elected officials on both sides of the political spectrum.

I am going to stand up for Pete again. Anyone is allowed to post on here. Not just people that sit around reading textbooks all day. Look at the "real" crap happening in Janesville,if you will. People are running out of money and thats all there is to it.

Pete - What facts would those be? Again you just post something without anything to back it up.

Does it unnerve anybody else that pete keeps quoting Adolf Hitler? <shiver>

I look at their facts a figures with a big of apprehention. Another important thing they don't consider is the amount of people that leave unemployment and are now underemployed. If a GM worker was making $30 an hour two years ago and now is making $8.00 and hour with no bennies....yes he is employed, but i would not call that an economic win. Be as mad at you want at him for making that much or say he was overpaid, but when it comes down to it that's less money in our local and national economy and still a very big negative impact when it happens to a large populace of people.

You try to give Pete facts about mundane data collection and he comes back with Hitler quotes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad...

Since Pete likes quotes, here is one for him:
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You've got to be careful quoting Ronald Reagan, because when you quote him accurately it's called mudslinging.-- Walter Mondale

I do agree with pete and booch as to once benefits end you are not included the count of the govs. tally of the unemployed.... I think if you took a poll of this city of janesville you will find it to be higher as some of the ones layed off did not have enough time in to collect benefits. Some of the new hires and temp. employees were not counted in the statics to begin with. Now to lower the statistics there would have to be places hiring and jobs to get and I don't see to many companies doing that and some companies are still laying off and closing. If you are reading the paper then you would know that and if you were actively looking for work you would find that NO ONE IS TAKING APPS......I am looking and hear the same thing week after week.

Is it really lower or did the unemployment benifits end for people and they are no longer kept in data for the statistics?

Such pessimism does not show faith in our great leader who promised 4 million jobs and an unemployment rate that wouldn't get above 8%. Plus, he promised rising wages and a falling deficit. And soon we'll get cheaper/free healthcare.

Cheer up - help is on the way!

If unemployment rates are based on the number of unemployment claims then it probably isn't an accurate account as people use up their unemployment. After next week I will be one of the unemployed without unemployment.

The real story that I have eluded to in other blog entries is that contrary to popular belief, unemployment will be a LEADING indicator of things to come, and not a lagging one which is the popular belief by most. In past minor recessions, unemployment only got up to 6-7% (peaked at 7.5% in 1992, and at 6.0% in 2003)both times it quickly recovered back to the 4-5% that is reminiscent of a strong economy. Today you are stuck at a near 10% rate that really has no end in sight. Even the best estimates only have GDP growth at 1-2% in the coming years, which will not bring much employment what so ever. This unemployment rate is at levels not seen in 70 years, and does not compare to any past economic downturns, and why I strongly believe it will be a leading indicator, and not a lagging one, which is always the conventional wisdom.
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This unemployment problem will really take hold on the economy when benefits start running out in mass. This will create even more defaults on mortgages/loans, and stiffen consumer spending even further, which is the biggest driving force of the US economy.

Well I'm back to work after a year off, but I make as much now as I did 20 years ago. Not sure the numbers are reflecting the overall decline in standards of living.

Back on topic, it's entirely possible the unemployment rate will go back up, unfortunately. Also, as gpawcat alludes to, average wages aren't rising either. Sucks for those in that situation.

By the way, I didn't call you a dolt. Only people that repeatadly post wrong information, in the face of obvious facts to the contrary, are dolts. Sorry to hear about your benefits running out.

Here is an abridged version, from Point 2: Where do the statistics come from?

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then.

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people.

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample.

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month).

Each person is classified according to the activities he or she engaged in during the reference week. Then, the total numbers are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates (based on updated decennial census results).

A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 290,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. Since monthly unemployment totals have ranged between about 7 and 11 million in recent years, the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#wher...

booch11, read the link I provided, from the government agency responsible for calculating unemployment. It couldn't be more clear.

The site describes how the government calculates unemployment. Even my copy-paste below points out that the BLS doesn't use unemployment benefits alone to determine unemploymeant rates. Shall I copy and paste the whole web site for you? Or is this a case where you won't believe it, because I posted the link?

zoom,
if i cease filing then i am off the roles.
if i cease filing, there is no way i can be counted as unemployed because they have no record of me being so.
nothing from nothing makes nothing.
i don't appreciate being called a dolt.
people who cannot make a fair argument, call names.
i suppose "racist" will be next.

"In this administration and all of the previous back into the 30's. when you run out of bennies, you go off the roles."

That's right. You aren't counted as receiving unemployment benefits anymore. That doesn't mean you aren't counted as being unemployed. Read the link to an actual source, instead of believing dolts on the internet.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#wher...

"Where do they comply this data you have mentioned, and how is it obtained."

I assume you mean "compile". Read the link provided to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Or don't.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#empl...

Per yahoo news today....7000 people exhaust their unemployment benefits daily.
Can anyone explain how congress passes(in a matter of days,1000'ss of unread pages)legislation to bailout the very ones that created this mess,yet are still(since 09-22-09)debating extending unemployment benefits for us the unemployed??Seriously I would appreciate an answer,Kohl,Feingold,Baldwin only mumble jumbled me with "politicalese" talk.

Pete - "Where do they comply this data...."

Sorry, but you lost me.

If the populaion goes down, due to people leaving the area to find new work (like for example GM workers who were able to tranfer), wouldn't that lower the umemployment rate in janesville???

Pete and Booch - You are both wrong as usual.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#empl...
"Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Actively looking for work may consist of any of the following activities:

Contacting:
An employer directly or having a job interview
A public or private employment agency
Friends or relatives
A school or university employment center
Sending out resumes or filling out applications
Placing or answering advertisements
Checking union or professional registers
Some other means of active job search "

Pete is absolutely correct. The way numbers are reported are a shell game. In this administration and all of the previous back into the 30's. when you run out of bennies, you go off the roles.

Additionally, two weeks ago, benefits ran out for a number of people. I know -- I'm one of them.

It's all Obama's fault!!

A friend of mine that used to work at LSI landed a job delivering pizzas since the unemployment ran out. Stimulus must be working!

Pete, back up your claims, instead of making stuff up. If you're unemployed, I can see why.

Pete, once again, you are spreading false information.

"Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. For instance, beginning in 1994, the CPS estimates reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey. (For more information on the CPS redesign, see Chapter 1, "Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey," in the BLS Handbook of Methods.)"
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unem...

"Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed."
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unem...

Do these "stats" reflect those that have exhausted unemployment benefits and are no longer counted?Maybe state can reinstate "On the Job Training" program that was to last until JUNE 30,2010,but was shelved after 3 months due to lack of funds.Will state refute,or agree with study that no matter how long job recovery (1,2,3,or more years)takes that Wi.,specifically Rock County will be the last in entire United States to show improvement?