We're going to choke on debt

By DAVID BRODER   Sunday, March 29, 2009
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— With a bit of bookkeeping legerdemain borrowed from the Bush administration, the Democratic Congress is about to perform a cover-up on the most serious threat to America’s economic future.

That threat is not the severe recession, tough as that is for families and businesses struggling to make ends meet. In time, the recession will end, and last week’s stock market performance hinted that we might not have to wait years for the recovery to begin.

The real threat is the monstrous debt resulting from the slump in revenues and the staggering sums being committed by Washington to rescuing embattled banks and homeowners—and the absence of any serious strategy for paying it all back.

The Congressional Budget Office sketched the dimensions of the problem March 20, and Congress reacted with shock. The CBO said that over the next 10 years, current policies would add a staggering $9.3 trillion to the national debt—one-third more than President Obama had estimated by using much more optimistic assumptions about future economic growth.

As far as the eye could see, the CBO said, the debt would continue to grow about $1 trillion a year because of a structural deficit between the spending rate, averaging 23 percent of the gross domestic product, and the federal revenues at 19 percent.

The ever-growing national debt will require ever-larger annual interest payments, with much of that money going overseas to China, Japan and other countries that have been buying our bonds.

Reacting to this scary prospect, the House and Senate budget committees last week took the paring knife to some of Obama’s spending proposals and tax cuts. But many of the proposed savings look more like bookkeeping gimmicks than realistic cutbacks. The budget resolutions assume, for example, that no more money will be needed this year to bail out foundering businesses or pump up consumer demand, even though estimates of those needs start at $250 billion and go up by giant steps.

Republicans on the budget committees offered cuts that were larger and, in some but not all instances, more realistic.

But the main device the Democratic budgeteers employed was simply to shrink the budget “window” from 10 years to five. Instantly, $5 trillion of debt disappeared from view, along with the worry that long after the recession is past, the structural deficit would continue to blight the future of young working families.

Democrats did not invent this gimmick. They borrowed it from George W. Bush, who turned to it as soon as his inherited budget surpluses withered with the tax cuts and recession of 2001-02. But Obama had promised a more honest budget and said this meant looking at the long-term consequences of today’s tax and spending decisions.

There are plenty of people in Congress for whom the CBO report was no surprise, and some of them have proposed a solution that would confront this reality. Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, and Judd Gregg, its ranking Republican, have offered a bill to create a bipartisan commission to examine every aspect of the budget—taxes, defense and domestic spending, and, especially, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Congress would be required to vote promptly, up or down, on its recommendations, or come up with an alternative that would achieve at least as much in savings.

In the House, Democrat Jim Cooper of Tennessee and Republican Frank Wolf of Virginia have been pressing a similar proposal but have been regularly thwarted.

The roadblock in chief is Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House. She has made it clear that her main goal is to protect Social Security and Medicare from any significant reforms. Pelosi has not forgotten how Democrats benefited from the 2005-06 fight against Bush’s effort to change Social Security. Her party, which had lost elections in 2000, 2002 and 2004, found its voice and its rallying cry to “Save Social Security,” and Pelosi is not about to allow any bipartisan commission take that issue away from her control.

The price for her obduracy is being paid now in the rigging of the budget process. The larger price will be paid by your children and grandchildren, who will inherit a future-blighting mountain of debt.

David Broder is a columnist for The Washington Post. Readers may write to him via e-mail at davidbroder@washpost.com.

reader COMMENTS
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(35)
RetiredAirForce
Mar 31, 2009 at 8:06 p.m.
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"I wish I could repeat meaningless colloquialisms to try to prove how smart I am. Your not inferior, your arguments are inferior."
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You mean like your "blue states subsidize the red states" comments"? Are you determining red vs blue by presidential elections, governor races, state election officials, or who won the local alderman race. If you are going by voting results for president I guess during 1984 the wealth of Minnesota supported the remaining 49 states. If your fuzzy math is just for this past election how does the wealth of New Mexico surpass Texas?

matthew516
Mar 31, 2009 at 4:41 p.m.
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darwin1
Mar 31, 2009 at 3:47 p.m.
I wish I could repeat meaningless colloquialisms to try to prove how smart I am. Your not inferior, your arguments are inferior.
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colloquialisms??? please define this word professor. "Your" not inferior~ TRY: YOU'RE not inferior (professor)
Darwin, "you're" a classic case of you think your sh*& doesn't stink, but your farts give you away. Play with someone else cuz fish aint bitin.

darwin1
Mar 31, 2009 at 3:47 p.m.
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I wish I could repeat meaningless colloquialisms to try to prove how smart I am. Your not inferior, your arguments are inferior.

matthew516
Mar 31, 2009 at 9:56 a.m.
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retired...Let's take God out of everything else and see if the intellects can destroy the whole thing. I think this cutting off the nose to spite their face thing is getting old!
Keep your posts coming, they're very insightful.

RetiredAirForce
Mar 31, 2009 at 9:46 a.m.
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"No area of the government is more corrupt and wasteful than the military."
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The Congress is...this is were all money is spent or allocated from.

matthew516
Mar 31, 2009 at 8:50 a.m.
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darwin..now you're putting words into my mouth. I have no interest in getting into a debate with you. I'm not into proving to everyone that I'm right all the time just to prove others inferior to me. Means nothing to me. Talk about a person who could use a little truth in their lives. Seek it and it shall set you free!

darwin1
Mar 31, 2009 at 8:04 a.m.
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Matthew, the problem with your arguments is that they say a lot of nothing.

"In the big picture the value is way down! The value of that dollar is only as proficient as the majority of the consumers in this country."

How much is "way" down? What is the big picture? How proficient are we and/or you? I agree that is some areas such as medical and education costs have clearly outstripped inflation. This is usually do to the fact that they are monopolies. However, they are also not "consumer" goods. You just can't buy a degree. Not legally anyways. Just like you can't buy health.
The lack of details in posts is a good sign that your talking points are from someone other than you. Where do you get your information from?

I guess I don't understand the logic. The government is corrupt but the military is not? No area of the government is more corrupt and wasteful than the military. They lost 12 billion dollars in Iraq. Lost. Do you remember this? Probably not. Then there is the Osprey. The missile defense shield. Please don't confuse individual soldiers with the "Military". They are not the same. We spent and spent are way out of WWII and the Great Depression. Are you saying that we shouldn't have done that? That it was a mistake?

You also seem to suggest that we should become a third world country and live by the law of the jungle. You speak of Entrepreneurs and seem to be forgetting that much of what they get in business support such as roads, telephone, data transmission, energy are subsidized by the government. Very few businesses actually pay for true cost of doing business.

Thanks but a majority of Americans have said no to that.

matthew516
Mar 31, 2009 at 8:03 a.m.
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hey retired...c'mon man! We'll take what we can get!

RetiredAirForce
Mar 31, 2009 at 2:29 a.m.
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"first off, did you notice Darwin1 actually agreed with something someone said?! Congrats on pulling that off!"
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He was only agreeing he read it wrong in the first place.

matthew516
Mar 30, 2009 at 11:52 p.m.
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retiredairforce.. first off, did you notice Darwin1 actually agreed with something someone said?! Congrats on pulling that off!
When I mentioned the American dollar not being worth as much as it once was, I didn't clarify. When the numbers from the powers that be decide on that value, it's all based on small items like fruits, vegetables, diapers, paper plates etc.. In the big picture the value is way down! The value of that dollar is only as proficient as the majority of the consumers in this country. That would be the average person like me and about 300 million other people. The multi billion dollar co's don't count in that figure. The newspapers and stock reports etc. can put anything they like in print, but, what counts is us! The consumers of this country do NOT get near as much bang for their buck as they did just 5 years ago. Now, with the Operation Obama Stimulus plan, the answer is printing more money??!! Everytime this happens, it weakens the American dollar. You won't see it in the paper, but, the consumers who get robbed by corporate American companies at the hands of our govt. definitely see it in their pocket books. The answer is not printing more money! It lies in free enterprise and making it worth the American entrepreurs time to be creative and rewarding them for their innovativeness rather than penalizing them by taking what should be theirs and spreading it out to the people who don't have an ounce of "proactive" in their bones and are content in just getting by! Put it this way. I have so much respect for the American military because when they are deployed to defend this country, they play for keeps. They don't do just enough to get by and hope they survive. It's do or die and they know it. If they give it a half effort, they're held accountable by their peers and many don't make it home! The same should apply with the communities of this country as well. Accountability. Do the right things and earn a fair share and you'll be rewarded accordingly. Sit on your hands and be passive and look for a handout and you'll starve to death. It's not rocket science. We just have no sense of right or wrong as a society and there's too many self serving, spoiled brats who have been getting their way for too long. Now we all suffer!

RetiredAirForce
Mar 30, 2009 at 8:14 p.m.
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“However, I do think it can be financed or backed to keep inflation down.”----Time will tell. However the latest results of attempted sales of debt are results that should wake people up!
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“Secondly, if the government is running it - it isn't a business. A business gets to pick and choose whom it serves the USPS serves everyone more or less.”----These are GSE’s, they are businesses run by the government.
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“Also, the idea that the military is well run”----Never said they were run well (efficient) I said this is one of the things the government does well (fighting wars); that is the whole problem with government none of it is efficient.
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“I mean really, who is going to invade us. Russia? China? Good luck, we all own guns.”----Tell that to the people who died on airplanes taken over by box cutters.
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“Its one thing to rumble a tank down a road. It is quite another for it to stay there. With 150,000 troops we couldn't secure Iraq without the cooperation of the Iraqis.”----We have some of the most dangerous cities in the world in our own county; before we start saying 150,000 could not secure a country (Iraq) maybe we should wonder why almost 800,000 law enforcement plus over 1 million DOD personnel in our own country and yet we have a high murder and crime rate right here.

darwin1
Mar 30, 2009 at 5:04 p.m.
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Its one thing to rumble a tank down a road. It is quite another for it to stay there. With 150,000 troops we couldn't secure Iraq without the cooperation of the Iraqis. Just as in WWII the Nazis couldn't have invaded and held Europe without collaboration from Governments. The Russians couldn't even hold Chechya without brutalizing everyone and China has difficulty with Tibet. Its not Pacifism its the reality that military might is a delusion.

I am not saying we shouldn't have a military. I am saying that we spend far too much on hardware that is irrelevant to the mission and not enough on intelligence and boots on the ground.

billnewbie
Mar 30, 2009 at 3:28 p.m.
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Sure, many, perhaps most of us own guns (to say that we all own guns is a bit of a stretch), but I wonder how many would be willing to use them if a few enemy tanks were rumbling down our streets with a brigade of heavily armed troops in support with our children hiding under their beds praying that they will survive for the next few minutes. Pacifism is self defeating. Dropping our military while saying "really, who is going to invade us" is a leap of faith (since it’s never been tried with the exception of some small states like Switzerland that have powerful allies and are isolated by geography) that is unsupported by history and the opportunistic nature of humanity. That's not a leap of faith many will want to take and it will be difficult for pacifists to sell. So dropping the military to save the money for social programs doesn't seem like a viable option to me.

darwin1
Mar 30, 2009 at 2:01 p.m.
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RetiredAirForce, you are correct about your comments. However, I do think it can be financed or backed to keep inflation down. Secondly, if the government is running it - it isn't a business. A business gets to pick and choose whom it serves the USPS serves everyone more or less. Also, the idea that the military is well run is a very very very long stretch. We could simply cut military spending to save the budget. I mean really, who is going to invade us. Russia? China? Good luck, we all own guns.

creatureinthefreezer
Mar 30, 2009 at 11:22 a.m.
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The only solution to real jobs that last past the stimulus spending is bringing in new Corporations or Small Business that will hire people.

The problem with the infrastructure spending is it will only help existing business that already do this kind of work. Such as Aggregate companies, Concrete companies, Construction companies, and suppliers to those organizations. So if you lost your job with Lear, Lab Safety, or the many other manufacturers then your SOL unless your think entry level $8-10hr is the answer.

So what happens after the money is gone from the Feds. The layoffs from these companies come back and we still have no real solution.

The fact is it will take tax incentives to bring in new business that will hire long-term jobs. Without some incentive the new jobs are not coming. Increased taxes starting 2011 because of the spending now and we'll all see less money in our wallets. The dollar value will decrease no matter what you think or hope. Fact of life people. The bottom is coming for the tax payer/citizens so save what you have now. You'll need it later.

RetiredAirForce
Mar 30, 2009 at 11:15 a.m.
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“The value of the dollar has been going up in value and not down as you say at the end of your piece and their is little sign of inflationary pressures.”----- If you read the sentence I said "if" the continued spending is not financeable the only option is printing money which will cause inflation; perfect example was last week when investors shrugged off purchasing low interest rate bonds during the federal auction. I did not say there was inflation now.
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“the government runs more than just those four things. They run the military and the Pentagon too.” ----Again you fail to read; I said the government does some things well; this included the military (fighting wars). As for the corporations they presently run all 4 are abysmal failures in business.
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“Allowing a systemic failure of the banking system is not an option. Businesses rely on the credit extended to them by banks to operate.”-----Credit is a function of the fed via money supply not banks.

billnewbie
Mar 30, 2009 at 10:11 a.m.
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Darwin1 points out that ex V.P. Cheney said that deficits don't matter, which is true, he actually said that. But it is also true that Democrats excoriated him for it. So to use Cheney's words as a justification for deficits by Democrats now seems contradictory. After all, if deficit spending was condemned as wrong during the last political campaign, it should still be wrong no matter who is spending the money, particularly since the campaign just ended less than 5 months ago. But I guess the political theory behind this apparent flip-flop is that it's a long time until the next election, and there is plenty of time for the electorate to forget since this will all be ancient history by then.

kinsohn
Mar 30, 2009 at 9:21 a.m.
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So the plan is to run trillion dollar deficits in 2019 to get us out of a recession in 2009. Got it.

It is interesting that last year the Democrats said Bush deficits of about $300b (insisted on by a Dem Senate and Congress) were a bad thing, even though we were in a recession, but now trillion dollar deficits are a good thing. Got it.

Kind of like timetables for withdrawal were a good thing in Iraq when a Republican was in office, but a bad thing for Afghanistan with a Dem in office. Got it.

At least you Dems aren't slaves to needless intellectual constistencies!

matthew516
Mar 30, 2009 at 9:09 a.m.
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darwin, the answer to a stimulus isn't printing new money to distribute to the American taxpayers. Printing new money weakens the American dollar. You can slice it up anyway you like, it's the truth. $10k five years ago is much different than $10K right now!

darwin1
Mar 30, 2009 at 9:03 a.m.
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Canada? You found Canada? One example? I think I would need more than one example. Here is a fact. Other countries use our dollar they way they use to use gold. Now a lot of people miss gold, however, governments used to debase their gold or announce a huge find to increase their currency backing thus watering it down. However, if you just so happen to be the only maker of gold or dollars then you are in charge unless everyone dumps their dollars. However, everyone has and excepts dollars which means it also has a networking effect that other currencies don't.

matthew516
Mar 30, 2009 at 8:38 a.m.
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darwin...the value of the American dollar going up? You really believe that? That's what your govt. wants you to believe so you go spend it. It's a flat out lie. Everytime the govt. prints more $ to cover up for it's shortcomings (for lack of better words) it weaken's the American dollar. The Canadian dollar is worth more than the American dollar now!

darwin1
Mar 30, 2009 at 7:52 a.m.
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RetiredAirForce. The value of the dollar has been going up in value and not down as you say at the end of your piece and their is little sign of inflationary pressures. Also, the government runs more than just those four things. They run the military and the Pentagon too. They are far more filled with corruption and waste then the four you mentioned. If inflation becomes a problem we can simply back our currency with corn or wheat as Reagan did. Our country and its people are the best investment in the world.

Allowing a systemic failure of the banking system is not an option. Businesses rely on the credit extended to them by banks to operate. This is a flaw in the "Just in Time" system. However, it is how the system works and unless you want everyone out of work, there is little choice.

fool_on_the_hill
Mar 30, 2009 at 7:28 a.m.
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No economist, Keynesian or otherwise, worth his salt has bold confidence in the outcome of any proposed solution to this mess. There is no precedent for the collapse of an illusory economic boom created by an unknown amount of public and private debt. I do hope the present approach will be successful.

That said, I'll be very careful about slamming anyone who questions the wisdom of trying to get out of a hole by digging faster and deeper.

RetiredAirForce
Mar 30, 2009 at 3:23 a.m.
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Spending is fine when you have two things, the ability to pay off the debt and a way to finance the debt. By escalating the debt percentage higher in relation to GDP it does choke the economy; hampering (slowing) the ability to pay it back. The second point, financing the debt; this is beginning to show signs of trouble. A very weak display by investors caused the government to increase the intended interest rate for bonds (this is the financing needed for the mass spending). Additionally the fed plan on toxic assets has banks (yep the same ones we took the debt from) lining up to bid on re-purchasing the assets back. Why? Because the government is going to provide low cost funding for the purchase and secure the buyer against defaults. This results in a win-win for the banks and lose-lose for the taxpayers. There are some things the government is good at; collecting taxes, fighting wars, and spending money. None of this involves creating a profitable enterprise to expand the economy. The four attempts so far by the government to run corporations have been a disaster; postal system, Amtrak, fannie mae, and fredie mack. If the continued spending is not financeable (no buyers) this leaves printing more money and a worthless dollar through inflation.

matthew516
Mar 30, 2009 at 12:12 a.m.
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The ones who are going to choke are the people waiting for their govt. to come to their rescue as opposed to taking the bull by the horns and making it happen themselves! I know it's not what people want to hear, but, it's the truth and it's not theory.

janesvillecomments
Mar 29, 2009 at 11:52 p.m.
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What got us out of the Great Depression was the government spending on World War II. No pie-in-the-sky supertrains or ice arenas, just straight contracts to manufacturers to build tanks, planes, ships and guns. Here's my simple solution to the economic crisis - Declare war on Canada.
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We really should declare war on China, but they have too many nukes and if we won, where would we get our consumer goods from? Overseas wars are too expensive due to fuel costs and all that long-distance traveling is too time-consuming. That leaves Mexico or Canada as targets and there are too many armed civilians in Mexico, they are already geared up and fighting a drug cartel vs law enforcement war down there, a person could get hurt invading Mexico.
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That leaves Canada. Oh sure, they've been allies, and in general they are nice people (excepting the snooty Francophiles in Quebec), but, we need a cheaper war to stimulate our economy and if we win, it will simplify driving to Alaska and we'll have the Canadian side of Niagara Falls, which is more photogenic than our side. It will stop the influx of Canadian actors, singers and comedians into Hollywood, freeing up job opportunities for their less-entertaining American counterparts.
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If we hurry, we will be in a position to introduce graft and corruption in the building for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics, just in case Chicago doesn't make the cut in Copenhagen this October. Fort McCoy might be expanded to help troops from our Southern states to winter weather, giving Wisconsin some much-needed revenue. The GM plant could be made over into a munitions factory (again) or a POW camp, rescuing Janesville's economy.
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What's the downside? A few angry Canadians, and they've already been disarmed by their government the way President Obama, Attorney General Eric Holder, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi want to disarm American citizens. Call or write your elected representatives today and tell them to stop dragging their feet on declaring war on Canada!

darwin1
Mar 29, 2009 at 8:56 p.m.
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The Japanese recession lasted longer than ten years. So, it is a hedge. We had deficit spending throughout the Great Depression and that was longer than ten years as well? If the economy recovers before then he can change his plans or he can be voted out of office. Also, it was Cheney that said "Deficits don't matter."

Some of that spending may also simply be a transfer of tax burdens from the local back to the federal level. Reagan didn't really cut taxes he simply shifted tax burdens to state and local governments. For example, we currently have nationalized health care through emergency rooms visits. When patients can't pay they are paid for mostly by local and state governments. Under national health care the federal government would pick up the tab and also attempt to reduce this expensive use of the system. I understand many people think this is rationing health care, however, all systems ration health care. Our system simply rations it through the amount of money an individual is able to spend.

chainsawchuckie
Mar 29, 2009 at 11:33 a.m.
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not long.............

billnewbie
Mar 29, 2009 at 11:31 a.m.
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All economic theory aside, the President proposes spending levels that project huge annual deficits (that's much larger than any "Bush deficit") each year for the next 10 years. Does the President expect this recession to last 10 more years? Obviously not.
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While the Republicans are chided for their apparently simplistic solution for everything (tax cuts, tax cuts, and more tax cuts), one could make the same case against Democrats (tax and spend, tax and spend, and more tax and spend). It's true that deficit spending is a generally accepted aid in recession recovery, but that's not the issue now. The stimulus package has already passed. There are signs that the economy is starting to recover. No, this extra spending has nothing to do with the recession, that's just the cover people that support this spending plan are using to justify it.
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It's also interesting that the "Bush deficits" are used as justification for these spending plans as well. How quickly the victors of the last election have forgotten one of the main issues they used to club their opponents with, those wickedly ballooning deficits. Now that they have power, deficits are no longer objectionable and in fact are agreeably necessary, even harmless. But are they really?. If those projections of doubling the national debt every 5 years holds true, how long can this economy, and this country remain viable?

janesvillean
Mar 29, 2009 at 10:44 a.m.
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spacejam, one person's WANT is another person's NEED. THat's a meaningless slogan.
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Keynesian economics shows that deficit spending is the best way out of a recession. The key is maintaining tax and other revenues during good times to where we have a budget surplus again, like the Clinton budget plan that Bush demolished. The debt itself is high by historical standards but not insurmountable, but we can't let the Republican solution-for-everything of tax cuts prevent us from reaching that surplus goal. Recession? Tax cuts. Boom? Tax cuts. Sink clogged? Tax cuts!

darwin1
Mar 29, 2009 at 9:22 a.m.
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Could this buffoon please explain to everyone how we got out of the Great Depression and won World War II. MASSIVE DEFICIT SPENDING!!!! In fact, that massive deficit spending was followed by one of the greatest economic booms in history. Yes, I am sure our children would hate that.

kinsohn
Mar 29, 2009 at 8:59 a.m.
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Clearly Mr. Broder is a right-wing nut. Why can't he see that Mr. Obama is setting up the country for long-term prosperity by running trillion dollar deficits every year?

spacejam
Mar 29, 2009 at 1:19 a.m.
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I hope our city manager don't choke when he spends on WANTS instead of NEEDS!!!

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