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Milton schools could face $1 million shortfall

MILTON — The calculations are preliminary, but the numbers don’t look good for the Milton School District.

The district could be facing a shortfall of more than $1 million in 2009-10 based on assumptions about state aid, district enrollment and property value, Business Manager Dianne Meyer told the Milton School Board on Monday.

“None of this information should be taken to mean this is exactly what’s going to happen,” Meyer said. “Certainly there’s going to be a lot of changes to these assumptions.”

The district starts planning its next annual budget as soon as the current budget is passed, even though much of the budget is still uncertain in the early stages, Meyer said.

This year provides even more uncertainty than usual, she said. The state is facing a potential budget crisis, and the community is facing the loss of thousands of jobs through the closing of the Janesville General Motors plant and other companies.

In making her estimate, Meyer assumed:

-- State education aid and student enrollment would remain steady in 2009-10. Enrollment decreased by 25 students in 2008-09.

-- Property value would increase by 4 percent. Normally, she assumes a 5 percent increase, but she lowered that because of the economy, she said.

-- Expenses would go up by $2.5 million next year because of inflation, upcoming teacher contract negotiations and other factors, while state revenue limits could cap the district at an estimated $1.4 million increase in revenue. That would leave a $1.1 million shortfall.

To make up for such a shortfall without cuts, the district would have to attract 364 new students next year, an unlikely scenario, Meyer said.

Meyer said she will begin putting together a prioritized list of possible cuts for the board to consider soon.

But the shortfall is far from definite, she said. At this time last year, Meyer predicted a $350,000 shortfall for 2008-09, but the district closed the gap because some of her assumptions did not hold true, she said.

To get a clearer picture of next year’s budget, she said, the district needs to pay attention to several things over the next few months:

-- The state’s decision about the qualified economic offer law, which allows deadlocked districts to impose contracts on teachers as long as wage and benefit increases equal at least 3.8 percent. The district might have to spend more money on lawyers and teacher salaries if the QEO is abolished, Meyer wrote in a memo to the school board.

-- State aid. Gov. Jim Doyle has indicated the state will have to make cuts across the board in the next biennial budget, but he has said he’d like to protect education.

-- Enrollment counts. The district won’t know its official 2009-10 enrollment until September.